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The Downward Spiral

By Omar Ali 

Recent events in Pakistan show that our worst fears may have been correct and musharraf and his agents in Karachi (or is it the other way round?) will not allow any peaceful transition to democracy. (some people may prefer to frame this as "Pakistanis in general are not ready for democracy"., but considering the mess the army has made in 50 years of army rule, its not clear how all pakistanis or "democracy" can be blamed equally for this mess). Imagine, if the establishment had quietly accepted the results of the last polls, what would we have seen? New governments would have been in place by now. PPP in Sindh, PPP led coalitions in Federal and Balochistan, PMLN led coalition in Punjab and ANP led coalition in Pakhtunkhwa. 

 The judges would have been restored immediately, starting the process of rule of law for the first time in our history. A great honeymoon feeling would have pervaded the country. MQM could have been made to accept results (no other choice being  immediately visible) or they would have been the sole disruptors and would have faced the wrath of a united country. The jihadist problem would have remained, but its never been big enough to stop the country from working ..and so on.  But, that has not happened. Army house has continued its conspiracies, the atmosphere has been thoroughly vitiated. Now MQM is emboldened to act on Musharraf's behalf because PPP has already shown that it is not averse to deal making... thus encouraging the old corruptocracy to think that only PMLN and the lawyers have to be knocked out and things will be "back to normal". Karachi is held hostage. Kiyani sahib is rehearsing his speech and being a wise man, is waiting till the dish is fully cooked. We could easily go from bad to worse.

Pakistan had a very small window of opportunity to repair the damage of decades of military rule. But the refusal of the army or Musharraf to read the writing on the wall means this opportunity may soon be lost. When and IF that happens, matters are likely to become very very violent as ifferent groups try to establish or hold power in different areas. In such anarchy, the Sindhis are not going to get much unless they can organize very quickly. As things stand, they cannot match the MQM in Urban Sindh and are likely to be colonized further if the legal order completely breaks down. But i dont see how even the army will hold everything together? The new mood in Punjab is such that I see no possibility of quiet acceptance of further rule by MQM-supported generals. Kiyani sahib may yet get a short honeymoon, but if he continues to use the MQM and Q-league as the main civilian agents, then how will he make it work where musharraf could not? Pakistan may be headed for much more  violent sorting out.  comments? 

Omar  

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