Why the “gradualists” were wrong.

By Omar Ali

In the days following the election I received a good deal of mail from “gradualists” who felt that “precipitate action” at this sensitive juncture would somehow disrupt the supposedly “delicate” process of transition to democracy in Pakistan. I was among those who insisted that such “gradualism” would NOT lead to transition to democracy. Rather, it would lead BACK to rule by secret agencies and behind the scenes operatives.  

I believed that the corruptocracy that rules Pakistan (and has ruled Pakistan for most of its existence) was only temporarily off balance because of their unexpected rout in elections that  they thought they had “pre-rigged” to get “positive results”. I thought we should take advantage of their temporary disorientation to restore the judiciary and thus strike a decisive blow for rule of law. This would make future adventures by the corruptocracy that much harder. It would also have set in motion a transition towards positive change in the political parties, who would have had to adjust to bare minimum rule of law, but would have tolerated this “inconvenience” in exchange for liberation from the shackles of the secret agencies.  

In real terms, they would still have been winners. They could have continued to make money illegally, but as in India, they would have to accept some very basic rules about the process of elections and change of government by popular mandate….a change that may have brought short term grief to some of them, but long-term benefits to all of them. Only the most extreme criminal organizations (like the MQM) would have had to drastically change their modus operandi. Everyone else could have managed the “transition to constitutional rule” without unbearable pain.. But this happy outcome would become less and less likely with every passing week as the old corruptocracy would regain its balance to some extent.  

Unfortunately, the leadership of the various political parties and especially the leadership of the PPP, has proven itself unready for this task and has fallen in with the old establishment for more of the same. This will now count as yet another missed opportunity for Pakistan.  
The silver lining (of sorts) is the simple fact that the powers that be who arranged this betrayal (the army high command and the US viceroy’s office above all) are proven failures at the task of governance. By using the most corrupt politicians to further their interests, they also pick the ones least capable of delivering good outcomes in terms of governance.  

In the last cycle, Musharraf, his corpse commanders and the CIA’s station chief relied on the choudhries and patriots and MQM and look where we are today. This time, they want to use Zardari’s PPP, the MQM and ANP plus leftovers from the PMLQ and JUI and the concoction will be even worse. I foresee absolutely NO possibility that ali baba and chalees chor will deliver. The Nawaz league should pull out of the central govt. at the first opportune moment if they are to be on the right side of the next popular earthquake. I used to say that Kiyani will eat this dish when its fully cooked, but I think he wont get the chance. We hope the “transition” to come will not be violent. But if it is, we should all know who is responsible for messing up the last opportunity for peaceful progress…